US markets fell as spring wheat regained most of its gain from the previous day.
- Chicago wheat July contract down 7.75 US cents / bushel to 680 cents;
- Kansas wheat July contract down 6.5c / bu to 630c;
- Minneapolis wheat contract down 27.75c / bu to 785c;
- September contract for MATIF wheat up by € 1.75 / t to € 216.50 / t;
- July corn contract down 3.5c / bu to 679.25c;
- Soybean July contract down 23.5c / bu to 1560.25c;
- July contract for canola in Winnipeg down C $ 22 / t to $ 882.40;
- August contract MATIF rapeseed up by € 4.25 / t to € 541.75 / t;
- US dollar index down 0.1 to 90;
- AUD firmer at US $ 0.776;
- CAD unchanged at $ 1,209;
- EUR firmer at $ 1,219;
- July contract on ASX wheat up $ 2 A / t to $ 311 / t;
- ASX January 2022 wheat up $ 2.50 / t to $ 314.50 / t.
Chicago wheat traded across a wide range before ending down 7.75us / bu. Kansas fell 6.5usc / bu while Minneapolis succumbed to better forecasts, forcing values down to 27.75usc / bu. Did I mention that we are in a weather market? In fact, in the case of the wheat stretching to the Black Sea which still has the problem of too much rain in the winter wheat belt, too dry in the spring wheat belt – again, the vegetation index suggests that this is not a problem although the harvest may be on the side later. Meanwhile, WA is a Garden of Eden. It will be interesting to see if the spring wheat market rebounds given the decline in harvest conditions from the average trade estimate. The corn has lost 3.5us / bushel which, given the reduced harvest conditions, should be found when we reopen. Beans fell 23.5usc / dr, the meal was down US $ 8.90 / st after trading a massive range, and the oil was down 0.33usc / dr. Crude was virtually unchanged, the Dow Jones lost 126 points and the Aussie traded at 0.7754.
In a trend reversal, the Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has raised its 2021 wheat production estimate from 500,000 t to 80 million tonnes (Mt).
Signs that food inflation is biting in Russia as their Minister of Economic Development announced they were ready to extend export restrictions on major food items.
Meanwhile, the United States is experiencing the latest wave of higher domestic prices due more to supply chain issues than systemic inflation. Nothing to see here, continue.
China has issued new import regulations that will take effect on January 1, 2022. The new rules target products intended for human consumption and will add another list of requirements for companies and countries selling their products to China .
Harvest conditions in the United States
Maize harvest conditions, good to excellent (G / E) were lowered to 72pc overnight from 76pc last week and 75pc last year.
The beans were 90% planted compared to 84% last week and 79% on average.
Bean conditions were assessed at 67% G / E compared to 72% last year.
52pc of sorghum sown, compared to 41pc last week and 59pc on average.
Sorghum conditions 74pc G / E against 55pc last year.
Spring wheat conditions at 38% G / E, up from 43% last week and 82% last year.
Barley conditions at 43pc G / E, up from 48pc last week and 79pc last year.
The progress of the winter wheat harvest was 2% complete compared to 7% on average.
Winter wheat conditions assessed at 50% G / E, up from 48% last week and 51% last year.
ABARES has published its last harvest report for June and estimated the next production for the winter harvest of 21/22
Australian markets were stronger to start the week. On the boards, we have seen wheat from the current and new crop strengthen by $ 1 to $ 2 / t, barley also posted gains of $ 1 to $ 2 / t.
More old crop barley continued to be distributed by SA and Vic through trade. We continue to see packages firming up for the July delivery window as producer truck fleets become more available and urea programs take effect.
The rain through SA over the past 24 hours has been a saving grace for the growers. Parts of the Eyre Peninsula received up to 20mm, the mid to lower north also saw a 20mm rise. Lower totals were recorded in the Upper South East and Mallee region with 2.6 mm received at Loxton. More showers growing throughout the day. The Victorian Wimmera also recorded drops of up to 8-10mm, which will keep the cultures drip-fed for now.
With the 4-day nomenclature forecast for northern NSW and southern Queensland forecasting 15-25mm, sorghum yet to be harvested could potentially pose more quality issues with more germination and lodging.