FOOD SECURITY OVERVIEW

Cereal production below the average forecast for 2021

Cereal import requirements in 2021/22 forecast at above average level

Wheat flour prices have increased slightly in recent months and are higher than a year ago

Cereal production below the average forecast for 2021

Harvesting of the 2021 winter crops, mainly wheat, continues, while planting of the 2021 spring crops, mainly barley, was completed in June and harvest is expected to start in August. Below average rainfall amounts and above average temperatures since May have adversely affected growing conditions in the country, especially in parts of the western provinces of Armavir and Aragatsotn, where on average around 20 per percent of the annual wheat production is produced. These adverse weather conditions, coupled with reduced availability of irrigation water, are likely to have a negative impact on cereal yields.

As a result, the total 2021 cereal production is estimated at around 208,000 tonnes, about 30 percent below the average level. Wheat production is expected to be around 120,000 tonnes, well below the five-year average. This is due to a gradual reduction in the area planted which has almost halved since 2015, as farmers have turned to more profitable crops, coupled with adverse weather conditions. Likewise, barley production is expected to be below average of 70,000 tonnes.

Cereal import requirements in 2021/22 forecast at above average level

Cereal import requirements for the 2021/22 marketing year (July / June) are estimated at 426,000 tonnes, about 20 percent above the five-year average volume. Wheat import requirements, which represent the bulk of total cereal purchases, are estimated at 380,000 tonnes above average, due to the low yields obtained over the past two years and the expected reduced production. in 2021.

On June 16, 2021, in order to ensure adequate domestic supplies and contain price increases, the Board of Directors of the Eurasian Economic Commission introduced a temporary ban on exports of buckwheat from Armenia, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan to countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union (UEE). The measure will expire on August 31, 2021 (see FPMA policy).

Wheat flour prices have increased slightly in recent months and are higher than a year ago. high export prices from the Russian Federation, the country’s main supplier of wheat, and supported by the slight depreciation of the national currency.

Prices for potatoes, another important staple, increased seasonally between September 2020 and May 2021, and fell sharply in June, as the harvest of short-cycle potatoes began in the country and increased. market supply.



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